V-Lab
20Y US Treasury CMT 20 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.82%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
12.93%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
13.38%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 370 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9173 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9546 | 172.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
370 days
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