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V-Lab

7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.91%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

19.02%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

19.48%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1123 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1123 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0646
4.22***
αARCH0.0461
10.00***
βGARCH0.9533
203.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.66*

0.999

Persistence

1123d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0646
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
10.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9533
203.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.66*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1123 days