Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.98%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

20.09%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

20.52%

increased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1130 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1130 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0625
4.22***
αARCH0.0458
10.02***
βGARCH0.9536
204.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.70*

0.999

Persistence

1130d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0625
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0458
10.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9536
204.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.70*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1130 days