1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Monday, February 16th, 2026:5.80% (-0.32%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6926 | 1.48 | |
| 0.1670 | 7.84 | |
| 0.8308 | 43.78 | |
| -0.2024 | -0.41 | |
| 0.8333 | 1.29 | |
| -1.1556 | -2.44 | |
| 0.7373 | 1.45 | |
| -0.6542 | -1.74 | |
| 0.5435 | 1.31 | |
| 0.2135 | 0.35 | |
| -0.4110 | -0.83 |
Estimation Period:
Jul 31, 2001 to Feb 13, 2026
Jul 31, 2001 to Feb 13, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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