V-Lab
1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.89%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
13.06%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
13.73%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 520 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0248 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1459 | 8.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8527 | 54.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.4820 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.8266 | 0.66 |
| γ3 | -2.4399 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 1.4653 | 2.31** |
| γ5 | -0.6797 | -2.03** |
| γ6 | 0.1782 | 0.73 |
| γ7 | 0.3736 | 1.87* |
| γ8 | 0.0477 | 0.18 |
| γ9 | -0.3706 | -1.41 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
520 days
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