V-Lab
3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.38%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
20.55%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
21.21%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2287 trading days (~9.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1903 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0538 | 8.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9459 | 156.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2287 days
Other 3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Government Bonds