V-Lab
30Y US Treasury CMT 30 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.07%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
12.25%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
12.93%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6684 | 6.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9504 | 172.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
154 days
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