V-Lab
30Y US Treasury CMT 30 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.93%
1 Week
13.96%
1 Month
14.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 238 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3727 | 1.90* |
| αARCH | 0.0417 | 12.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 532.35*** |
| νDF | 10.0832 | 1.30 |
0.997
Persistence238d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3727 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 12.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 532.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.0832 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
238 days
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