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V-Lab

30Y US Treasury CMT 30 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.33%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

14.36%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

14.47%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 30Y US Treasury CMT 30 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 237 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~237 daysv = 16.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.5125
2.27**
αscore0.0460
10.79***
βpersistence0.9971
575.01***
νDF16.5995
0.60

0.997

Persistence

237d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.5125
2.27**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0460
10.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9971
575.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

16.5995
0.60

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

237 days