Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

13.07%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

13.23%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

13.83%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~227 daysv = 6.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.3598
1.98**
αscore0.1307
19.89***
βpersistence0.9970
664.19***
νDF6.4968
6.31***

0.997

Persistence

227d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.3598
1.98**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1307
19.89***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9970
664.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4968
6.31***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

227 days