6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
13.07%
1 Week
13.23%
1 Month
13.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.3598 | 1.98** |
| αscore | 0.1307 | 19.89*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9970 | 664.19*** |
| νDF | 6.4968 | 6.31*** |
0.997
Persistence227d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.3598 | 1.98** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1307 | 19.89*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 664.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4968 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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