6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Monday, February 16th, 2026:7.59% (-0.29%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4286 | 2.19 | |
| 0.1411 | 6.60 | |
| 0.8588 | 40.16 | |
| -0.2586 | -1.51 | |
| 0.2508 | 1.05 | |
| 0.1981 | 1.44 | |
| -0.4719 | -3.61 | |
| 0.6516 | 5.90 | |
| -0.6105 | -3.73 | |
| 0.2455 | 1.18 | |
| -0.2068 | -1.17 | |
| 0.5476 | 2.84 | |
| -0.5829 | -2.60 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Feb 13, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Feb 13, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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