V-Lab
5Y US Treasury CMT 5 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
19.22%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
19.37%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 303 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7349 | 8.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 60.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,563.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1533 | 15.09*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
303 days
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