ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index

CBOE Volatility Index

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index

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CBOE Skew Index

How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	86
αARCH	0.0139	2.56**
βGARCH	0.9386	98.96***
γleverage	0.0452	4.98***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0668	2.46**
λ₂forecast adj.	0.6107	12.95***
λ₃tau persistence	0.3849	8.62***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	86
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0139	2.56**
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9386	98.96***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0452	4.98***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0668	2.46**
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.6107	12.95***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.3849	8.62***

V-Lab

5Y US Treasury CMT 5 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other 5Y US Treasury CMT 5 Year Analyses