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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.95%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

19.04%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

19.39%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 18240 trading days (~72.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0211
14.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9531
820.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0515
20.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.2660
6.53***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9639
131.51***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

18240 days