2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
21.53%
increased by 1.27%
1 Week
21.61%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
21.92%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | ||
| 0.0213 | 15.12 | |
| 0.9530 | 912.83 | |
| 0.0514 | 20.04 | |
| 2.8930 | 13.20 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.01 | |
| 0.9715 | 270.70 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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