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7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.63%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

20.68%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

20.87%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 221% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 221% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.0161
3.28***
βGARCH0.9501
161.34***
γleverage0.0356
4.48***
λ₁tau intercept0.0921
2.43**
λ₂forecast adj.0.9911
39.84***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0161
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9501
161.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0356
4.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0921
2.43**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9911
39.84***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days