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10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.16%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

19.24%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

19.56%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1941 trading days (~7.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1941 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0198
4.73***
βGARCH0.9625
259.37***
γleverage0.0346
4.97***
λ₁tau intercept0.0025
0.38
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9999
182.10***

1.000

Persistence

1941d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
4.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9625
259.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0346
4.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0025
0.38
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
182.10***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1941 days