10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.16%
1 Week
19.24%
1 Month
19.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1941 trading days (~7.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0198 | 4.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9625 | 259.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.0346 | 4.97*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0025 | 0.38 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9999 | 182.10*** |
1.000
Persistence1941d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 4.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9625 | 259.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0346 | 4.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 182.10*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1941 days
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