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10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.87%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

15.91%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

16.08%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0027
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0199
18.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9636
980.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0329
13.11***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

23901 days