V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.43%
1 Week
15.47%
1 Month
15.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 19804 trading days (~78.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0027 | 1.02 |
| αARCH | 0.0198 | 4.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9637 | 245.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0328 | 3.29*** |
1.000
Persistence19804d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9637 | 245.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0328 | 3.29*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
19804 days
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