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10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.44%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

18.48%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

18.62%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 24321 trading days (~96.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~24321 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0027
1.04
αARCH0.0198
4.67***
βGARCH0.9638
247.00***
γleverage0.0327
3.28***

1.000

Persistence

24321d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0027
1.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
4.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9638
247.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0327
3.28***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

24321 days