V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.87%
1 Week
15.91%
1 Month
16.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0199 | 18.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9636 | 980.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0329 | 13.11*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23901 days
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