10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
1 Week
18.48%
1 Month
18.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 24321 trading days (~96.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0027 | 1.04 |
| αARCH | 0.0198 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9638 | 247.00*** |
| γleverage | 0.0327 | 3.28*** |
1.000
Persistence24321d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 1.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 247.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0327 | 3.28*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
24321 days
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