10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.69%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
17.73%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
17.88%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0027 | 4.12 | |
| 0.0200 | 18.69 | |
| 0.9636 | 979.23 | |
| 0.0329 | 13.10 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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