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10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.43%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

15.47%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

15.64%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 19804 trading days (~78.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~19804 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0027
1.02
αARCH0.0198
4.65***
βGARCH0.9637
245.85***
γleverage0.0328
3.29***

1.000

Persistence

19804d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0027
1.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
4.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9637
245.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0328
3.29***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

19804 days