5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
20.33%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
20.38%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
20.55%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0036 | 4.17 | |
| 0.0199 | 16.63 | |
| 0.9615 | 982.12 | |
| 0.0373 | 14.68 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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