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V-Lab

5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

18.55%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

18.60%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

18.79%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 189% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0036
4.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
16.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9616
984.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0373
14.74***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days