V-Lab
5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.55%
1 Week
18.60%
1 Month
18.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 189% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0036 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 16.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 984.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0373 | 14.74*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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