1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.90%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
14.05%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
14.63%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0082 | 11.80 | |
| 0.0423 | 17.36 | |
| 0.9325 | 446.37 | |
| 0.0505 | 11.39 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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