Skip to main content
V-Lab

1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

16.60%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

16.73%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

17.22%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0083
11.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0422
17.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9327
448.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0503
11.42***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days