3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.83%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
18.90%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
19.17%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0052 | 4.80 | |
| 0.0227 | 16.87 | |
| 0.9559 | 848.92 | |
| 0.0429 | 14.97 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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