V-Lab
3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.58%
1 Week
16.66%
1 Month
16.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 188% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0052 | 1.22 |
| αARCH | 0.0227 | 4.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9561 | 213.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0426 | 3.74*** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0052 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0227 | 4.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9561 | 213.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0426 | 3.74*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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