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V-Lab

10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.63%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

14.68%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

14.88%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2186 trading days (~8.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0033
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
17.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9627
999.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0344
12.89***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2186 days