V-Lab
10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.63%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
14.68%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
14.88%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2186 trading days (~8.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0033 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 17.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9627 | 999.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0344 | 12.89*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2186 days
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