3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
7.12%
increased by 1.24%
1 Week
7.47%
increased by 1.59%
1 Month
8.75%
increased by 2.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0102 | 15.00 | |
| 0.0634 | 19.74 | |
| 0.8823 | 335.08 | |
| 0.1086 | 12.44 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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