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V-Lab

10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.14%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

17.17%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

17.31%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 daysv = 13.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.1398
2.35**
αscore0.0496
11.86***
βpersistence0.9972
637.17***
νDF13.1701
1.05

0.997

Persistence

245d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.1398
2.35**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0496
11.86***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9972
637.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.1701
1.05

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

245 days