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V-Lab

10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

15.10%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

15.15%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

15.35%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of 10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0538
8.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0463
53.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9973
2,563.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9200
8.12***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

254 days