V-Lab
10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.10%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.15%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
15.35%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0538 | 8.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 53.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 2,563.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9200 | 8.12*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
254 days
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