V-Lab
7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.82%
1 Week
18.84%
1 Month
18.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 297 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1573 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0448 | 14.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 788.05*** |
| νDF | 8.1261 | 2.74*** |
0.998
Persistence297d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1573 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0448 | 14.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 788.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1261 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
297 days
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