7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.41%
1 Week
18.44%
1 Month
18.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 299 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.1708 | 2.13** |
| αscore | 0.0447 | 14.11*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9977 | 783.73*** |
| νDF | 8.1153 | 2.74*** |
0.998
Persistence299d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.1708 | 2.13** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0447 | 14.11*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 783.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1153 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
299 days
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