V-Lab
7Y US Treasury 7 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.36%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
18.38%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
18.49%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 296 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1615 | 8.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0449 | 56.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,147.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0622 | 11.13*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
296 days
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