3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.64%
1 Week
20.68%
1 Month
20.84%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 301 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.3509 | 2.04** |
| αscore | 0.0592 | 14.23*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9977 | 803.95*** |
| νDF | 9.2224 | 2.10** |
0.998
Persistence301d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.3509 | 2.04** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0592 | 14.23*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 803.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2224 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
301 days
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