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V-Lab

3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.64%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

20.68%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

20.84%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 301 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~301 daysv = 9.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.3509
2.04**
αscore0.0592
14.23***
βpersistence0.9977
803.95***
νDF9.2224
2.10**

0.998

Persistence

301d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.3509
2.04**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0592
14.23***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9977
803.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2224
2.10**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

301 days