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V-Lab

3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

17.94%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

17.53%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

17.87%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2635 trading days (~10.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 306% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0123
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9687
682.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0375
30.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.36
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2036
0.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2635 days