V-Lab
3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.94%
1 Week
17.53%
1 Month
17.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2635 trading days (~10.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 306% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0123 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9687 | 682.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0375 | 30.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2036 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2635 days
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