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2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

21.48%

increased by 0.65%

1 Week

21.63%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

21.86%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0154
2.39**
βGARCH0.9101
66.19***
γleverage0.0658
4.78***
λ₁tau intercept0.1130
2.72***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8642
16.39***
λ₃tau persistence0.1335
2.85***

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0154
2.39**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9101
66.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0658
4.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1130
2.72***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8642
16.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1335
2.85***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days