V-Lab
20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.06%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
12.21%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.76%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7319 | 5.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 8.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9521 | 177.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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