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V-Lab

20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.35%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

14.47%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.92%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 228 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~228 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7074
5.19***
αARCH0.0449
8.62***
βGARCH0.9521
176.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-2.59***

0.997

Persistence

228d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7074
5.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0449
8.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9521
176.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-2.59***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

228 days