20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.47%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
16.56%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
16.92%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 216 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~216 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6932 | 5.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0449 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9519 | 176.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -2.74*** |
0.997
Persistence216d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6932 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0449 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9519 | 176.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
216 days
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