V-Lab
Allianz SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.42%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
16.62%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.27%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2724 | 5.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0954 | 9.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8728 | 77.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0302 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.0511 | 0.61 |
| γ3 | -0.1853 | -2.48** |
| γ4 | 0.1347 | 1.75* |
| γ5 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | -0.0688 | -1.55 |
| γ7 | 0.0383 | 0.82 |
| γ8 | 0.0576 | 1.03 |
| γ9 | -0.1268 | -1.92* |
| γ10 | 0.1005 | 1.97** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2724 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0954 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8728 | 77.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0302 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.0511 | 0.61 |
| γ3 | -0.1853 | -2.48** |
| γ4 | 0.1347 | 1.75* |
| γ5 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | -0.0688 | -1.55 |
| γ7 | 0.0383 | 0.82 |
| γ8 | 0.0576 | 1.03 |
| γ9 | -0.1268 | -1.92* |
| γ10 | 0.1005 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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