V-Lab
Metaplanet Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
176.82%
increased by 40.27%
1 Week
173.38%
increased by 36.83%
1 Month
164.48%
increased by 27.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8719 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1698 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7544 | 23.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0245 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0549 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | 0.0273 | 0.42 |
| γ4 | -0.0240 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 0.1311 | 1.47 |
| γ6 | -0.1708 | -2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
Other Metaplanet Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities