V-Lab
Namhwa Industrial Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
83.65%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
84.20%
decreased by 2.46%
1 Month
85.85%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3186 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1381 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8199 | 19.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.6331 | 0.31 |
| γ2 | -2.3803 | -0.76 |
| γ3 | 2.6266 | 1.10 |
| γ4 | -1.0329 | -0.45 |
| γ5 | 0.7963 | 0.28 |
| γ6 | -1.1317 | -0.38 |
| γ7 | 0.9263 | 0.28 |
| γ8 | -2.8739 | -0.67 |
| γ9 | 8.1383 | 1.29 |
| γ10 | -9.0721 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
Other Namhwa Industrial Co Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities