Skip to main content
V-Lab

XChange TEC Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

1,165,449.00

decreased by 120,621.00

1 Week

1,754,020.80

increased by 467,950.80

1 Month

7,389,818.11

increased by 6,103,748.11

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of XChange TEC Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 5, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7481
2.06**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3071
7.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6783
15.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-9.9721
-2.66***
γ216.4424
2.84***
γ3-8.1137
-2.03**
γ4-0.6184
-0.13
γ55.3228
0.97
γ6-7.0914
-1.51
γ711.9086
3.05***
γ8-18.1391
-3.97***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days