V-Lab
XChange TEC Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,165,449.00
decreased by 120,621.00
1 Week
1,754,020.80
increased by 467,950.80
1 Month
7,389,818.11
increased by 6,103,748.11
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7481 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3071 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6783 | 15.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -9.9721 | -2.66*** |
| γ2 | 16.4424 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | -8.1137 | -2.03** |
| γ4 | -0.6184 | -0.13 |
| γ5 | 5.3228 | 0.97 |
| γ6 | -7.0914 | -1.51 |
| γ7 | 11.9086 | 3.05*** |
| γ8 | -18.1391 | -3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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