V-Lab
Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
5.47
1 Week
4.96
1 Month
5.63
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.1348 | 13.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8533 | 83.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.1348 | -8.16*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0058 | 0.90 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0497 | 8.12*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9456 | 139.12*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 13.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8533 | 83.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1348 | -8.16*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 0.90 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0497 | 8.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9456 | 139.12*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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