How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	81
αARCH	0.1346	13.06***
βGARCH	0.8531	83.59***
γleverage	-0.1346	-8.22***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0074	1.08
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0506	8.29***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9446	138.83***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	81
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1346	13.06***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8531	83.59***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1346	-8.22***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0074	1.08
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0506	8.29***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9446	138.83***

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Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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