How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	81
αARCH	0.1345	13.06***
βGARCH	0.8529	83.56***
γleverage	-0.1345	-8.24***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0070	1.03
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0510	8.35***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9442	138.64***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	81
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1345	13.06***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8529	83.56***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1345	-8.24***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0070	1.03
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0510	8.35***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9442	138.64***

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Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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