How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

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How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	5.0000	0.18
αARCH	0.0141	0.13
βGARCH	0.9865	29.49***
γleverage	-0.0039	-0.03

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	5.0000	0.18
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0141	0.13
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9865	29.49***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0039	-0.03

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Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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