CEPS PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
546,550.30
1 Week
546,564.95
1 Month
692,286.74
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2007 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0125 | 1.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.4008 | 11.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0125 | -1.12 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8592 | 3.31*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 4.74*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 |
0.407
Persistence1d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0125 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4008 | 11.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0125 | -1.12 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8592 | 3.31*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 4.74*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.407
Half-life:
1 days
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