CEPS PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
1 Day
16,159,090.00
1 Week
16,159,090.00
1 Month
16,158,060.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2007 to Jun 5, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0101 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4539 | 0.28 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0101 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.3032 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5615 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4385 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.459
Half-life:
1 days
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