Fangzhou Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
281,316.30
1 Week
264,297.28
1 Month
198,259.59
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 327 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 0.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9340 | 220.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1277 | -0.35 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1022 | 0.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3788 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
327 days
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