V-Lab
Kente Catalysts Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
195.35
1 Week
196.72
1 Month
205.52
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 918 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7492 | 0.54 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 0.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.5960 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0242 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9673 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
918 days
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