V-Lab
John Wiley & Sons Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.85%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
35.10%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
38.45%
increased by 4.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5375 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1441 | 7.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6971 | 18.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0709 | 1.51 |
| γ3 | -0.1750 | -6.12*** |
| γ4 | 0.1955 | 7.15*** |
| γ5 | -0.1483 | -4.57*** |
| γ6 | 0.0805 | 2.25** |
| γ7 | -0.0045 | -0.13 |
| γ8 | -0.0376 | -1.03 |
| γ9 | 0.0117 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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