S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, May 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.90%
decreased by 5.52%
1 Week
25.60%
increased by 5.18%
1 Month
94.77%
increased by 74.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.6896 | 6,895,730.00 | |
| 0.0604 | 604,270.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.0841 | 9.88 | |
| 0.9372 | 29.40 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to May 22, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to May 22, 2026
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