S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
32.21%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
32.17%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
32.01%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0354 | 20.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0683 | 30.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9218 | 412.27*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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