S&P GSCI Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.01%
increased by 1.29%
1 Week
16.16%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
16.71%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0141 | 5.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0766 | 10.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9188 | 136.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0215 | 0.33 |
0.995
Persistence148d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0141 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0766 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9188 | 136.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0215 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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