Pngs Reva Diamond Jewellery Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
80.05%
1 Week
74.44%
1 Month
69.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6233 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.2566 | 3.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5071 | 2.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.3509 | -2.26** |
| δpower | 0.5389 | 0.64 |
0.713
Persistence2d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6233 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2566 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5071 | 2.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3509 | -2.26** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5389 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.713
Half-life:
2 days
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