Pngs Reva Diamond Jewellery Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
57.00%
increased by 8.46%
1 Week
57.09%
increased by 8.55%
1 Month
57.13%
increased by 8.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.15) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.7357 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.3361 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.1009 | 1.18 |
| γleverage | -2.1535 | -2.11** |
0.437
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7357 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3361 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1009 | 1.18 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.1535 | -2.11** |
Persistence:
0.437
Half-life:
1 days
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