Pngs Reva Diamond Jewellery Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
52.34%
1 Week
53.65%
1 Month
55.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.50 |
| αARCH | 0.2386 | 2.26** |
| βGARCH | 0.5729 | 2.58*** |
| γleverage | -0.6147 | -1.54 |
| δpower | 1.1843 | 0.87 |
0.775
Persistence3d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2386 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5729 | 2.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6147 | -1.54 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1843 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.775
Half-life:
3 days
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