Miami International Hold Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
45.07%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
44.90%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
44.44%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9414 | 6.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0179 | 0.67 |
| βGARCH | 0.9282 | 7.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0920 | -0.33 |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9414 | 6.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0179 | 0.67 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9282 | 7.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0920 | -0.33 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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