S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, April 3rd, 2026
1 Day
24.04%
increased by 9.79%
1 Week
44.46%
increased by 30.21%
1 Month
488.38%
increased by 474.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, April 2, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.7068 | 7,067,550.00 | |
| 0.0432 | 432,450.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.0820 | 11.49 | |
| 0.9423 | 36.86 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Mar 27, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Mar 27, 2026
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