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S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

11.41%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

11.57%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

11.89%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0552
4.72***
βGARCH0.8646
39.70***
γleverage0.0202
1.49
λ₁tau intercept0.0025
1.99**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0484
3.96***
λ₃tau persistence0.9486
72.86***

0.930

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
4.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8646
39.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0202
1.49
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0025
1.99**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0484
3.96***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9486
72.86***

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days