V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
11.41%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
11.57%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
11.89%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0552 | 4.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8646 | 39.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0202 | 1.49 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0025 | 1.99** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0484 | 3.96*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9486 | 72.86*** |
0.930
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 4.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8646 | 39.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0202 | 1.49 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 1.99** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0484 | 3.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9486 | 72.86*** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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