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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, March 27th, 2026

1 Day

11.72%

increased by 6.40%

1 Week

23.74%

increased by 18.42%

1 Month

849.66%

increased by 844.34%

Analysis last updated: Monday, March 30, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m26
α0.70687,067,550.00
β0.0432432,450.00
γ0.50005,000,000.00
λ10.01234.10
λ21.000036.75
λ30.00000.00
Estimation Period:
Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025