Bloomberg Global Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4.90%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Week
12.95%
increased by 4.76%
1 Month
497.93%
increased by 489.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.7068 | 7,067,550.00 | |
| 0.0432 | 432,450.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.0123 | 4.10 | |
| 1.0000 | 36.75 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025
Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025
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