Siam Wellness Group Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
2,389.55
1 Week
2,932.11
1 Month
3,073.40
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2014 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.79 |
| αARCH | 0.1031 | 4.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8619 | 89.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0698 | 1.64 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.79 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1031 | 4.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8619 | 89.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0698 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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