Phoenix Education Partne Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
6,358.10
increased by 34.82
1 Week
6,533.73
increased by 210.45
1 Month
7,324.67
increased by 1,001.39
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 9, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0119 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9525 | 115.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0666 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
300 days
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