Phoenix Education Partne Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6,442.54
increased by 77.77
1 Week
6,517.56
increased by 152.79
1 Month
6,612.25
increased by 247.48
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 223 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~223 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.04 |
| αARCH | 0.0164 | 0.26 |
| βGARCH | 0.9638 | 33.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0335 | 0.21 |
0.997
Persistence223d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0164 | 0.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 33.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0335 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
223 days
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