V-Lab
Ibotta Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5,114.79
decreased by 278.58
1 Week
5,218.42
decreased by 174.95
1 Month
5,901.16
increased by 507.79
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9227 | 197.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0354 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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