V-Lab
Cyient Limited ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
42.42
1 Week
48.67
1 Month
59.45
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 37467 trading days (~148.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2186 | 1.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7026 | 38.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1576 | 0.48 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.0734 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1444 | 2.53** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8556 | 12.28*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
37467 days
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