Churchill China PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
95,023.43
1 Week
77,341.18
1 Month
84,728.30
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4188 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4344 | 23.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4188 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0174 | 0.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9826 | 94.43*** |
Persistence:
0.644
Half-life:
2 days
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