Saudi AZM FOR Comm And Info ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
5,195.79
1 Week
5,794.90
1 Month
5,957.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2022 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4929 | 3.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1627 | -0.11 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4640 | 0.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5360 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.574
Half-life:
1 days
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